Lure Analytics: Mepps Spinners, Spoons & Lake Trout

While thinking about my fishing trip to Biggar Lake this past May, I began to wonder which lure was most effective at catching lake trout.  We used 3 lures on that trip: Nick used a Mepps Aglia Long #1 Rainbo Scale, while I used a Mepps Dressed Aglia #2 Silver and a Mepps Syclops #1 Silver-Hot Firetiger.  We fished for roughly 13 hours that weekend, so we have a decent sample size to draw some conclusions about the effectiveness of each lure in various conditions.

The first thing we can do is simply look at the number of fish caught by each lure.  As you can see, the Syclops caught the most fish.  But this doesn't necessarily tell us that it was the best lure, since we didn't fish each lure for the same amount of time.  Looking at the number of fish caught per hour spent fishing should give us a better idea of what lure was most effective.

In the chart below, I've calculated the average number of fish caught per hour for each lure.  Here, we still see that the Syclops is the most effective, while the Aglia Long is the least effective.  However, we also noticed that the person sitting in the front of the canoe always caught more fish than the person sitting in the back.  Because I sat up front more often than Nick, this Fish/Hour analysis may not give a completely accurate picture of the effectiveness of each lure.

Here, I've calculated the number of fish per hour caught by each lure by the person sitting in the front of the canoe.  This analysis shows us two things: first, that it really was advantageous to sit in the front of the canoe; second, that this is probably a more accurate representation of the effectiveness of each lure, the Aglia Long in particular.  We can draw the first conclusion because the effectiveness of each lure improves when adjusting for the 'sitting in front' bias.  We can draw the second conclusion because the Aglia Long had the greatest improvement relative to the previous analysis.  Nevertheless, we still see that the Syclops was the best lure, while the Aglia Long was the worst.

There can be several explanations for why sitting up front is advantageous.  The first is that, because we were trolling, the fish would see the front person's lure first.  The second is that the person in the back of the canoe is paddling and generally more occupied while the person up front can solely focus on checking the depth of their lure.  But I don't really buy the second explanation for a couple of reasons- first, sometimes, particularly in windy conditions, the person in front was also paddling or doing something else like pumping water; second, I caught a fish in half an hour of fishing while canoeing solo, suggesting that it is possible to paddle and concentrate on your line.  Thus, it seems that the advantage stems mostly from the fish seeing first the lure of the person up front (or, perhaps, some other unknown reason).

I also wanted to see whether any of the lures performed better in particular conditions.  Here, to avoid including only a very small sample size, I have not been able to include only data from the person sitting up front.  This analysis shows that the Mepps #2 was the best in overcast conditions, while the Syclops was the worst- though these findings should be taken with a grain of salt.  I should note that the only data obtained for the Syclops in these conditions came from fishing in the back of the canoe.  The fact that the Syclops caught any fish in this position suggests that it still may be relatively effective- compare this to the Aglia Long, which caught ZERO fish in the back position of the canoe.  In overcast conditions, the Aglia Long was used fairly evenly between the front and back positions- and it was actually used a little more up front.  Thus, this should be a fairly accurate representation of how effective the lure was in overcast conditions- potentially better than, or at least finally equal to, the Syclops (remember, we should be focussed on how effective each lure is relative to another, don't focus on the numbers per se).  The Mepps #2 was also used fairly evenly between the front and back, and it too managed to catch a fish in the back position.  Probably the strongest conclusion we can draw from this analysis is that the Mepps #2 was the most effective lure in overcast conditions.  

Finally, we can look at how effective each lure was in sunny conditions.  In the chart below, you can see that the Syclops and Mepps #2 were the most effective in sunny conditions.  Again, I drew the data from all positions, front and back, and so this may not be a totally accurate representation.  For instance, the Aglia Long was used in sunny conditions only from the disadvantageous back position- and so the chart may understate the lure's effectiveness.  Also, the Mepps #2 was only used in sunny conditions for 1/2 an hour, a very small sample size, and so this chart may overstate the effectiveness of the lure in these conditions.  On the other hand, the Syclops was used in sunny conditions only from the advantageous front position for 2.5 hours.  This suggest that the Syclops was the most effective lure in sunny conditions.

I should note a few final things.  First, in this kind of analysis, some might argue that angle skill should be part of the equation.  Generally, I'd agree, especially if we were, for example, flipping into heavy cover for largemouth - a technique that requires a good deal of skill just to detect bites.  But in this case, though it takes some knowledge to fish in the right areas and have the correct set-up, actually bringing the fish in doesn't take a high level of skill. 

Overall, I'd conclude that the Syclops was the best lure, and the one I'd use again on Biggar Lake, though I might switch to the Mepps #2 in overcast conditions.  I should also note that the Syclops is the biggest lure of the 3, and so we might have some evidence to support the 'bigger is better' theory.  Then again, this whole experiment might also just show that, a few weeks after ice out, lake trout will hit just about anything!  Can't wait 'till open water season begins again, so I'll have to occupy myself with ice fishing in the meantime...

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